The short-term impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on socioeconomic activities in China based on the OMI-NO2 data.

As an air pollutant closely related to urban traffic and heavy industrial capacity, the variation of NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) concentration can directly reflect the strength of socioeconomic activities. Using the weekly average results of daily product synthesis of tropospheric NO2 column concentrations from OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite inversion, a weekly-scale variation series of standardized socioeconomic activity index during the Spring Festival period of 2019-2021 is constructed. The results show that the OMI-NO2 satellite data are in good consistency with ground-based monitoring data; the Spring Festival holiday also suppresses socioeconomic activity in normal years, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic leads to an extended period of 2-3 weeks of weakened socioeconomic activity in China after the holiday, while the minimum value of socioeconomic activity intensity decreases by 0.12. Although socioeconomic activity is significantly suppressed in the short term, the intensity of socioeconomic activity rises steadily with the gradual resumption of work and production everywhere from the third week after the Chinese Spring Festival and has reached 60.91% of the highest level before the holiday in the seventh week after the holiday. OMI-NO2 satellite data can be used for a rapid assessment of the intensity of air pollution emissions and the level of socioeconomic activity in different regions.

Socioeconomic restrictions slowdown COVID-19 far more effectively than favorable weather-evidence from the satellite.

We model the impact of restricting socioeconomic activities (SA) on the transmission of COVID-19 globally. Countries initiate public health measures to slow virus transmission, ranging from stringent quarantines including city lockdown to simpler social distancing recommendations. We use satellite readings of NO2, a pollutant emitted from socioeconomic activities, as a proxy for the level of social-economic restrictions, and discuss the implications under the influences of weather. We found that restricting SA has a leading contribution to lowering the reproductive number of COVID-19 by 18.3% ± 3.5%, while air temperature, the highest contributor among all weather-related variables only contributes 8.0% ± 2.6%. The reduction effects by restricting SA becomes more pronounced (23% ± 3.0%) when we limited the data to China and developed countries where the indoor climate is mostly controlled. We computed the spared infectees by restricting SA until mid-April. Among all polities, China spared 40,964 (95% CI 31,463-51,470) infectees with 37,727 (95% CI, 28,925-47,488) in the Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak. Europe spared 174,494 (95% CI 139,202-210,841) infectees, and the United States (US) spared 180,336 (95% CI 142,860-219,445) with 79,813 (95% CI 62,887-97,653) in New York State. In the same period, many regions except for China, Australia, and South Korea see a steep upward trend of spared infectees due to restricting SA with the US and Europe far steeper, signaling a greater risk of reopening the economy too soon. Latin America and Africa show less reduction of transmissivity through the region-by-time fixed effects than other regions, indicating a higher chance of becoming an epicenter soon.